Futuristics & Law Enforcement--The Millennium Conference

July 10 - 14, 2000

FBI Academy

Quantico, Virginia

 

 

Introduction

 

For the first time since 1991, a futures conference was held at the FBI Academy in Quantico, Virginia.  Entitled "Futuristics & Law Enforcement--The Millennium Conference," this event was attended by distinguished individuals with diverse backgrounds, including policing, academia, and literature.  The purpose of the conference was to take the first steps toward producing a vision for policing in the 21st century in five areas:  The Future of Technology and Its Effect on Law Enforcement;  The Future of Leadership and Management in Policing Agencies;  Future Crime/Future Law;  The Future of Policing Practices and Philosophies; and The Changing Face of America--Demographics and Policing.   The attendees examined possible futures for law enforcement and formulated strategies that police leaders will be able to employ to create the “preferred future” for their agencies and communities.

 

 

In order to accomplish the very ambitious goals of the conference, a modified Nominal Group/Delphi surveying process was employed.  Group members were asked to formulate possible future trends in their areas of interest.  Once these trends were formulated, group members anonymously voted on the likelihood that a particular trend would occur by a certain year as well as the impact that the trend would have on policing by that year. Multiple rounds of voting were conducted to allow participants to modify their opinions based upon the input of their peers.  The results of the conference appear below. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Attendees

 

Attendance at "Futuristics & Law Enforcement--The Millennium Conference" was by invitation only.  The desire of the conference organizers was to obtain a broad cross-section of opinion relating to the future of policing.  As such, participants of diverse backgrounds, both from inside and outside of law enforcement, were included.  All had distinguished themselves in their chosen professions.  As well, each had demonstrated a capacity to think creatively which all but guaranteed lively, thorough, and insightful discussions on all issues.  The attendees included:

 

Plenary Speakers:

 

Mr. Dennis Bushnell                                                Future Strategic Issues

National Aeronautics and

Space Administration

 

Mr. Greg Bear                                                            Future Crime

Science Fiction Author

 

Dr. Gary Sykes                                                            Ethics in the 21st Century

Southwestern Law Enforcement

Institute

 

Chief Gordon Bass                                                            Management in the

Jacksonville Sheriff’s Office                         21st Century

 

Ms. Tammany Mulder                                                Demographics in the

Bureau of the Census                                                Information Age

 

Mr. Joel Garreau                                                            Networks and Hierarchies

Washington Post

The Edge City Group

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Televised Panel Discussions

 

“Technology, Training, and the 21st Century Officer”

 

Host:                        Ms. Penelope Parrish

Law Enforcement Communications Unit, FBI

 

Moderator:            Dr. Bernard Levin

Blue Ridge Community College

Waynesboro, Virginia, Police Department

 

Panelists:            Dr. Michael Buerger

Northeastern University

 

Captain Thomas Cowper

New York State Police

 

Dr. Michael Birzer

Washburn University

 

Producer:            Ms. Diana Morgan

Technical Services Unit, FBI

 

 

“Privatization and Policing in the 21st Century”       

 

Host:                        Ms. Penelope Parrish

Law Enforcement Communications Unit, FBI

 

Panelists:            Mr. Cliff Maurer

Carter-Wallace, Inc.

International Association of Chiefs of Police

 

Supervisory Special Agent John Michael Bellus

Federal Bureau of Investigation

 

Captain Al Youngs

Lakewood, Colorado, Police Department

 

Producer:            Ms. Diana Morgan

Technical Services Unit, FBI

 

 

Group Members (With Breakout Presentations As Noted) 

 

Group 1:            The Future of Technology and Its Effect on Policing

 

Dr. John Jarvis: Facilitator

Behavioral Science Unit, FBI

 

Ms. Ashley Backman: Recorder

Yale University

 

Mr. Greg Bear

Science Fiction Author

 

Mr. Marc Caplan

National Institute of Justice

 

Capt. Thomas Cowper:                                 Multi-Agency/Multi-Jurisdictional

New York State Police                                    Communication Systems”

 

Lt. Charles "Sid" Heal                                     The Magic Bullet: The Ultimate

Los Angeles County                                    Non-Lethal Weapon"

Sheriff's Department

 

Special Agent Edward Lewis

United States Secret Service

 

Ms. Ronnie Paynter

Law Enforcement Technology

 

Dr. Kathryn Scarborough

Eastern Kentucky University

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Group 2:            The Future of Leadership and Management in Policing Agencies

 

Mr. Arthur Westveer: Facilitator

Behavioral Science Unit, FBI

 

Chief Gordon Bass

Jacksonville, Florida, Sheriff's Office

 

Dr. Michael Birzer                                                            The Pedagogy of Police

Washburn University                                          Training

 

Mr. Trent DePersia                                                Technologies for Law

National Institute of Justice                                Enforcement Applications

 

Sergeant Peggy Price Johnson

Duluth, Minnesota, Police Department

 

Supervisory Special Agent Robert E. Lee

Federal Bureau of Investigation

 

Deputy Chief Dennis McKnight

Bear County, Texas,

Sheriff's Department

 

Mr. Laszlo Toth                                                            The Hungarian National Police

Hungarian National Police                                    in the 21st Century

 

Mr. Kenneth Whitman

California Commission on Peace Officer

Standards and Training

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Group 3:            Future Crime/Future Law

 

Captain Gerald Konkler: Facilitator

Tulsa, Oklahoma, Police Department

 

Ms. Rachel DeVelder: Recorder

Federal Bureau of Investigation

 

Dr. Don DeNevi

San Francisco State University

 

Supervisory Special Agent Daphne Hearn                        Organized Crime in the

Federal Bureau of Investigation                                                21st Century

 

Mr. Eric Jefferis

National Institute of Justice

 

Professor Brian Levin                                                            Recent Supreme Court

California State University, San Bernardino                        Decisions in Criminal

Law and Their            

Implications

 

Ms. Sandra "Sunny" Schwartz                                                RSVP (Resolve to Stop

San Francisco Sheriff's Department                          the Violence Project)--                                                                                                      Violence Prevention

 

Special Agent Darrell Skaggs

Drug Enforcement Administration

 

Mr. Thomas Sunderland

John Jay College of Criminal Justice

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Group 4:            The Future of Policing Practices and Philosophies

 

Dr. Bernard "Bud" Levin: Facilitator

Blue Ridge Community College/

Waynesboro, Virginia,  Police Department

 

Ms. Ronnie Bobbitt: Recorder

Federal Bureau of Investigation

 

Ms. Jeri Boisvert

Minnesota Department of Public Safety

 

Dr. Michael Buerger                                                            Boardrooms, Bedrooms

Northeastern University                                                            and Back Alleys

 

Dr. Michael Campion

Police Psychologist

 

Deputy Chief Ron Glensor

Reno, Nevada, Police Department

 

Inspector Gareth Morgan                                                Community Policing in

West Midlands, United Kingdom, Police             the United Kingdom

 

Mr. Greg Saville

University of New Haven

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Group 5:            The Changing Face of America--Demographics and Policing

 

Major Tyree Blocker: Facilitator

Pennsylvania State Police

 

Ms. Heather Notter: Recorder

Federal Bureau of Investigation

 

Chief Michael Berkow                                                Policing a Divided Society

South Pasadena, California, 

Police Department

 

Special Agent Juliann Brunzell

Minnesota Bureau of Criminal

Apprehension/International

Association of Women Police

 

Mr. Gerard Cleveland                                                Youth and Police: Breaking the

Toronto Public Schools                                                Barriers

 

Dr. James Conser                                                            Privacy Rights and Public

Ohio Peace Officer Training Commission            Safety in a Digital World

 

Dr. John MacDonald

University of South Carolina

 

Dr. Allen Sapp                                                            The Changing Family and

Central Missouri State University                        Individualism

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Statistical Analysts

 

Ms. Shinah Kim

University of California, San Diego

 

Ms. Marianna Politzer

Fordham University School of Law

 

Ms. Edith Rickett

Howard University

 

 

Conference Coordinators

 

Ms. Anna Grymes

Behavioral Science Unit, FBI

 

Ms. Cynthia Laskiewicz

Behavioral Science Unit, FBI

 

Supervisory Special Agent Carl J. Jensen, III

Behavioral Science Unit, FBI

 

The coordinators also wish to acknowledge and thank the many other employees of the Federal Bureau of Investigation who made this conference possible.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Results

 

Prior to the conference, it was recognized that attempting to galvanize opinion on expected trends and recommended strategies would likely require more than the four days set aside.  To that end, prior to their arrival in Quantico, attendees were asked to submit a list of possible trends.  From the time of their arrival on Monday until their departure on Friday, participants engaged in group discussions and individual, anonymous voting to estimate the likelihood of occurrence and expected impact on policing for each trend.  As well, each group formulated strategies that it thought policing agencies should consider in order to achieve the best possible future for the organization and community.  In the spirit of the Delphi surveying process, trends and strategies were voted upon multiple times.  The ratings listed below represent the average of individual group members’ votes of the likelihood that a trend will occur by a specified date as well as its expected impact on policing.  Each likelihood rating is expressed as a percentage[1] (e.g., “there is a 56% chance that trend “x” will occur by year “y”) while the impact rating follows the following scale:   No impact = 0; Little impact = 1; Moderate impact = 2; Significant impact = 3; Great impact = 4.  In addition, some groups arranged strategies in order of importance; that is, those strategies believed to be the most important were listed first.  Where this occurred, it will be noted.  To attain the strategy rankings, each group member voted individually and anonymously.  The listings, therefore, represent the average of individual group members’ votes. 

 

The very nature of futures studies dictates that there is often little finality in a “final” product.  In order to remain vibrant, creative, and worthwhile, forecasts are constantly reexamined and refined.  To that end, it is hoped that the results of the conference will be viewed as the beginning rather than the end of the journey.  The conference participants and coordinators will feel most gratified if their opinions spark discussion and debate within policing and provide leaders with possible paths forward.

 

The below listed trends and strategies were formulated solely by participants and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the United States Department of Justice (DOJ), or any participant’s agency.  Further, the inclusion of these trends and strategies on the FBI web site does not represent an endorsement of them by either the FBI or DOJ.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Group 1: The Future of Technology and Its Effect on Law Enforcement

 

          Trends

 

 

1.                  Trend:              Technology allowing you to change your fingerprints will exist.           

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            26                        32                        45                        55                       

Impact:                        1.7                        1.7                         1.7                        1.4                       

 

 

 

2.         Trend:             Classroom training for police agencies will be provided on the Internet.           

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            61                        79                        81                        84                       

Impact:                        2.4                        2.7                        3.0                        3.0                       

 

 

 

3.                  Trend:              Criminal Justice Education with an emphasis on change will exist.           

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            55                        67                        76                        84                       

Impact:                        2.4                        2.7                        2.8                        2.9                       

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.                  Trend:              There will be more departments with computer crime units and even smaller departments will employ "cyber cops" (those trained in the investigation of computer crimes).                                   

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            55                        66                        68                        70                       

Impact:                        2.8                        3.2                        3.0                        3.0                       

 

 

 

5.                  Trend:              Creative training methods such as online training and computer-based training simulations will be the norm, as they will be a way for smaller departments to train officers on new technologies without breaking the bank.           

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            57                        65                        74                        81                       

Impact:                        2.3                        2.9                        3.1                        3.1                       

 

 

 

6.                  Trend:              Thinking/reasoning machines (robots) and digitally engineered personalities (cyber-agents programmed with complex emotions, intelligence, reasoning, and personality traits) will achieve and surpass human level intelligence.           

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            3                        9                        16                        31                       

Impact:                        0.6                        1.0                        1.6                        1.9                       

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7.                  Trend:              Genetic engineering and biotechnology will allow the direct biological adaptation of machine based components to the human brain/central nervous system (i.e., memory, vision, computational power, communication, networking).           

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            21                        29                        40                        47                       

Impact:                        0.7                        1.3                        1.7                        2.3                       

 

 

 

8.                  Trend:              Collaborative technologies that will positively identify individual(s) as present at the scene of a crime as well as technologies that will enable law enforcement agencies to detect concealed contraband hidden on suspects will be developed.                                   

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            51                        56                        62                        69                       

Impact:                        2.9                        3.0                        3.4                        3.6                       

 

 

 

9.         Trend:             Truly effective nonlethal options for subduing violent individuals will be in use.           

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            41                        62                        72                        85                       

Impact:                        2.4                        2.7                        3.0                        3.0                       

 

 

 

10.              Trend:              Truly effective hand-held concealed weapons detectors will be available to identify armed suspects.                       

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            47                        69                        76                        84                       

Impact:                        2.3                        2.4                        2.6                        2.7                       


11.       Trend:             Personally tailored, artificial intoxicants will replace more traditional drugs.  These drugs will first become popular among the well-to-do but will eventually spread to all groups.  These new drugs will have few deleterious side effects and no addictive potential.  Drug enforcement and restriction will become un-workable. 

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            27                        41                        47                        48                       

Impact:                        1.2                        1.7                        1.7                        1.5                       

 

 

 

12.              Trend:              Wearable recording systems and private surveillance will combine to make most activities in publicly accessible areas (and many in private) available to law enforcement.  Home burglaries will drop, muggings will decline, corporate theft will be reduced.  "Shadows" and anonymity will be very difficult to find.            

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            46                        54                        63                        74                       

Impact:                        2.3                        2.9                        3.1                        3.3                       

 

 

 

13.              Trend:              Biometrics as an identification tool will be used for many purposes to include perimeter access, bank transactions, identification of known criminals, and ultimately, as a database for the identification of all persons.            

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            46                        59                        70                        81                       

Impact:                        2.6                        3.0                        3.1                        3.4                       

 

 

 

 

14.              Trend:              Law enforcement training methods will become more standardized for all with future technology, allowing city/county/state/federal departments to be trained alike on similar issues.  Virtual reality computing hardware and software will be utilized.                       

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            25                        44                        54                        72                       

Impact:                        2.3                         2.3                        2.4                        2.6                       

 

 

 

15.              Trend:              The longevity of life will increase significantly.            

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            18                        26                        34                        47                       

Impact:                        0.8                        1.2                        1.5                        2.0                       

 

 

 

16.              Trend:              There will be continued controversy surrounding new technology

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            20                        30                            40                        35                       

Impact:                        1.5                        1.5                        2.5                        2.0                       

 

 

 

17.              Trend:              There will be strong scrutiny of new technologies           

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            30                        35                        45                          50                       

Impact:                        2.0                        2.5                        3.0                          3.0                       

 

 

 

 

 

18.              Trend:             Crimes committed against high technology‑dependent systems, or activities that utilize those systems to further criminal pursuits, will increase dramatically. 

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            53                        68                        73                        78                       

Impact:                        2.9                        3.3                         3.6                        4.0           

 

 

 

19.              Trend:                          Wireless  technology will supplant wired networks.  This will be coupled with  voice recognition/hands‑free devices that will combine the functions of cellphones, radios, Palmpilots, computers, video cameras and GPS units, and may include wearable devices that will allow the processing and exchanging of data from any location.

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            57                        68                        81                        92                       

Impact:                        2.5                        3.3                        3.9                        3.9           

 

 

 

20.              Trend:              Policing agencies will be forced to commit significantly more resources in an effort to keep up with hacking/cracking trends.

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            61                        68                        69                        72                       

Impact:                        2.9                        3.3                        3.8                        3.9           

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

21.              Trend:              With the proliferation of wireless communications, ownership and use of the airwaves will continue to be fiercely debated. Piracy of the airwaves will emerge as a serious crime.  In some cases, as when emergency police, medical, and other services are affected, it will be viewed as a violent crime.

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            46                        56                        60                        65                       

Impact:                        2.0                        2.6                        2.9                        2.9           

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Strategies (No Order)

 

1.                  Encourage aggressive research and development of nonlethal weapons and apprehension technologies.

 

2.                  Form partnerships with academic institutions (in a variety of disciplines) to educate and train personnel in emerging technologies which impact the policing profession.

 

3.                  Take a graduated implementation strategy with regard to artificial intelligence, forensic identification, and technology while maintaining respect for an individual's civil rights.  

 

4.                  Extensive education and information dissemination is essential to mitigate societal “backlash” in response to new technologies.

 

5.                  Due to the lack of knowledge and resources to combat cybercrime, police must seek more funding for education and training to combat these crimes.

 

6.                  Law enforcement agencies need to have proactive planning programs to monitor trends, discuss and develop new strategies, and facilitate and respond to emerging trends.

 

7.                  Due to the lack of knowledge and resources to combat cybercrime, law enforcement must form a variety of partnerships with both public and private entities.

 

8.                  Law enforcement agencies and personnel should be encouraged to further experiment with new artificial intelligence and biometric technologies and should adopt these technologies when they become viable.

 

9.                  A proliferation of new benign, mind-altering activities/substances will require the redistribution of certain resources in law enforcement.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Group 2: The Future of Leadership and Management in Policing Agencies

 

Trends

 

1.                  Trend:              The dominant presence in the workforce of Generation X-ers will require police supervisors, managers, and executives to possess high levels of competence in interpersonal relations, coaching/counseling and mentoring.  In addition, police leaders will need to develop the ability to engender “follower-ship” in subordinates. Supervisors increasingly will be Generation X-ers who will bring a new level of creativity to the workplace.                                   

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):              51                        61                        74                        88                       

Impact:                          2.4                        2.8                        3.6                         4.0                       

 

 

 

2.                  Trend:              Public safety coordination will increasingly require new forms of problem solving, work groups, and organizational structures..

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            48                        60                        76                        85                       

Impact:                        2.8                        3.4                        4.0                        3.6                       

 

 

 

3.                  Trend:              Future success may require modified agency structures and working relations.

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            30                        40                        60                        72                       

Impact:                        1.6                        2.2                        3.0                        3.2                       

 

 

4.                  Trend:              Peace Officer minimum educational requirements will increase.                                   

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            41                        62                        81                        93                       

Impact:                        1.8                          3.0                        3.8                        4.0                       

 

 

 

5.                  Trend:              The importance of civilians in police forces is increasing as more unsworn staff are needed to address evolving business, technical, analytic, legal, training, and funding aspects of law enforcement.  Looking toward the future, there may also be rising support for privatization and outsourcing of certain non-law enforcement and administrative functions while law enforcement handles traditional duties and responsibilities.                         

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            42                        55                        72                        85                       

Impact:                         2                        2.6                        3.8                        4.0                       

 

 

 

6.                  Trend:              Comprehensive strategic plans that will provide for agencies to deliver policing services in a very different way with identifiable performance measures and clearly stated vision, mission, and values statements will be implemented.                       

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            37                        55                        73                        89                       

Impact:                        2.2                        3.2                        3.8                        4.0                       

 

 

 

 

 

 

7.                  Group 2 members also identified the following trends but did not vote on them.  As such, only the trends themselves will be listed:

 

-- High tech crime threats will increase exponentially (e.g., Internet crimes,  computer intrusions,  crimes against children,  infrastructure threats) requiring new management techniques and technical recruitment strategies.

 

-- Crime will increasingly shift to the suburbs requiring new managerial planning practices to ensure investigative resources are allocated appropriately within the suburban offices.

 

-- Demographic shifts in the population in terms of both immigration and domestic migration will require new managerial recruitment strategies to ensure a diversified workforce.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Strategies (In Descending Order of Importance)

 

 

1.                  Strategic planning issues:  Law enforcement must adopt integrated, collaborative, multi-disciplinary planning to ensure that organizations are able to meet the challenges of the future and correlate budgets to strategic planning priorities and results.  Law enforcement must establish best practices to more effectively project the future. 

 

2.                  Leadership Issues: There is a need for more role models/ mentoring within the law enforcement community.  Potential leaders must be identified early on and then given special training and rotational/shadowing opportunities to ensure career development and to maintain a high level of professionalism within the law enforcement community.

 

3.                  Change Management:  Organizational leadership changes due to the flattening of management hierarchy will radically change the culture in police organizations.  There is a need to ensure that sufficient attention is given to organizational and cultural change management to ensure that the proper values and work environment are present to foster continued institutional viability and innovation.                  

 

4.                  Recruitment, Retention, & Training Issues: Departmental guidelines regarding tenure and promotion may require some examination so that organizations have the flexibility to promote and retain personnel appropriately, especially among the high tech work force as Internet/computer intrusion/ child pornography/ infrastructure threats increase.

 

5.                  Changing Supervisory Attribute Requirements:  Flattening of the organizational hierarchy will be necessary to devolve power and foster team oriented problem solving approaches. As we go about flattening the hierarchy, however, we must come up with some other sort of modification to the pay structure to compensate for this compression of management and to ensure retention of the best and brightest personnel.

 

6.                  Changing Supervisory Attribute Requirements: The rigid paramilitary style should be replaced by work teams consisting of line level officers, community members, and corporate members, all partnering together to accomplish public safety.

 

 

 

7.                  Changing Supervisory Attribute Requirements:  The current squad structure must be modified to give way to more productive and creative teams of officers who, having been empowered with more autonomy, will become efficient problem solvers, thus strengthening the ties between the police and the citizenry.

 

8.                  Changing Supervisory Attribute Requirements:  The current generation needs some new skills and attributes from supervisors to allow efficient management in terms of employee development.  In particular, supervisors will need to allow for creativity and innovation for success.

 

9.                  Changing Supervisory Attribute Requirements:  Law enforcement agencies should begin to experiment with “networked” leadership of matrix management rather than the traditional forms of hierarchical management

 

10.              Peace Officer Educational Requirements:  Law enforcement agencies must study the impact of increased educational requirements on recruitment and retention of qualified police officer candidates and develop response strategies.    

 

11.              Changing Supervisory Attribute Requirements:  Community policing and problem solving should increase, thereby strengthening ties between the police, citizenry, and corporate partners.          

 

12.             Enhance image of law enforcement/ raise public consciousness/ trust: Law enforcement offices  will increasingly need a media/ public relations representative to provide not only press releases but foster an increased public awareness of the positive role law enforcement is having on the community.

 

13.            Privatization Issues: If the public sector encounters difficulties in keeping up with demand in certain areas, specialized areas of the police responsibilities may be privatized; however these should most likely be administrative or support functional areas as opposed to primary policing responsibilities. (e.g., outsourcing of functions like administering polygraph examinations, loading data, etc.).  To ensure proper strategic planning, law enforcement should explore legislative means to determine whether privatization is permitted, prohibited, or legislation can be enacted to permit privatization of certain functions.            Where privatization occurs, there should be very clear selection and training standards to ensure that integrity and ethics are not compromised.

 

 

14.              Changing Demographics:  To keep pace with changing demographic trends in terms of immigration and domestic migration, law enforcement must develop recruitment plans to ensure a diversified workforce.

 

15.       Bolster Citizen Involvement: Public awareness and trust should be enhanced through establishment of citizens’ police academies and citizen police panels.

 

16.              Peace Officer Educational Requirements: We must move toward professionalization of the law enforcement profession, which mandates continued learning throughout the careers of personnel.

 

17.              Shifting Crime Patterns: As crime increasingly moves to the suburbs, law enforcement must strategically plan its resource requirements to ensure that smaller offices will be equipped to meet future challenges. 

 

18.       Bolster Citizen Involvement: In order to provide a realistic view of policing to the public, employees should be encouraged to submit articles detailing police accomplishments to  mainstream magazines and journals, as appropriate.

 

Group 2 members also identified an additional strategy but to date have not had an opportunity to vote on it:

 

Arbitration Mechanisms: Leaders should develop and implement measures to deal with and overcome resistance to change.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Group 3:     Future Crime/Future Law

 

Trends

 

1.                  Trend:                          Cybercrimes will dramatically increase the need for responsive laws and enforcement operations.           

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            78                        84                        89                        91

Impact:                        2.8                        3.0                        3.5                        3.5

 

 

 

2.                  Trend:              Policing will have to deal with increasing incidents of civil unrest due to fractionalization and spontaneous, unchecked, violent outbursts.

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            50                        58                        60                        66

Impact:                        3.0                        3.0                        3.3                        3.3                       

 

 

 

3.         Trend:             A weapon of mass destruction (either traditional explosives, nuclear, biological or chemical) will be employed domestically causing more than 250 fatalities.

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            60                        69                        76                        85           

Impact:                        3.0                        3.3                        3.5                        3.5                       

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.                  Trend:              Perceived law enforcement abuses (e.g. in areas of use of force, racial profiling, drug enforcement, investigative techniques) will result in statutory restrictions on or the elimination of police practices such as stop and frisk, vehicle stops involving less than probable cause, and the use of confidential informants.

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            39                        46                        50                        53                       

Impact:                        2.5                        2.8                        3.0                        3.0

 

 

 

5.                  Trend:              Enhanced home/group home/ isolation room electronic monitoring will reduce demand for prisons even for serious offenders.  Traditional incarceration, as a means of corrections, will become greatly modified, but will not totally disappear.                                    

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            28                        35                        40                        46                       

Impact:                        1.5                        1.5                        1.3                        1.3           

 

 

 

6.                  Trend:              There will be an increase in religious and ethnic based terrorism.

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            26                        30                        34                        41

Impact:                        1.8                        1.8                        2.3                        2.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7.                  Trend:              Disinformation campaigns related to new technologies will appear in many venues (especially the Internet) and will undermine confidence in  those technologies. 

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            38                        44                        49                        54           

Impact:                        1.8                        1.8                        1.8                        2.0

 

 

 

8.                  Trend:              The evolution of a new drug culture, based on the development of non-addictive, increasingly potent, non-traceable, longer lasting, and more easily produced substances, will challenge society and law enforcement.

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            43                        50                        63                        73                       

Impact:                        2.0                        2.5                        2.8                        3.0

 

 

 

9.                  Trend:              Acts of genomic/genetic terrorism will lead to greater pressure for law enforcement to become involved in protecting the food supply and investigating assaults on food production and quality. (Environmental policing)

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            25                        31                        36                        51                       

Impact:                        2.0                        2.0                        2.8                        3.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10.              Trend:              As cyber technology advances and tracking the movement of stores of value (goods or commodities) becomes easier, there will be more thefts of non or low traceable stores of value.

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            27                        33                        38                        42           

Impact:                        1.5                        1.8                        2.3                        2.3

 

 

 

11.              Trend:              Advances in animal farming combined with pressure from animal rights and other opposition groups will lead to the promulgation of numerous animal protection laws as well as greater demands for law enforcement.

 

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            14                        21                        35                        46

Impact:                        1.3                        2.0                        2.5                        2.8

 

 

 

12.              Trend:              Alien smuggling and forced servitude will increasingly occur.                       

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            49                        55                        53                        55                       

Impact:                        2.3                        2.3                        2.5                        2.5                       

 

 

 

13.              Trend:              The declining aggregate crime rate witnessed during the past decade will “bottom out” during the next five years and increases in the crime rate will occur.

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            55                        61                        67                        75                       

Impact:                        1.8                        1.8                        1.8                        1.8                       


14.              Trend:              “Outrageous crimes,” such as the Columbine High School massacre, or copycat crimes of this nature, will likely continue.

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            51                        56                        55                        46                       

Impact:                        2.8                        2.5                        2.0                        2.0           

 

 

 

15.       Trend:             Courts will continue to invalidate laws on the basis that legislatures exceeded their authority.

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            60                        61                        63                        64           

Impact:                        1.8                        2.0                        2.0                        2.3           

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  Strategies (In Descending Order of Importance)

 

1.     Develop tools and expertise in the investigation of cybercrimes.

 

2.                  Develop practices and policies that address terrorism without violating constitutional rights and guarantees.

 

3.                  Promote forecasting and proactive planning to address change.

 

4.                  Review criminal justice practices universally for ethical considerations.

 

5.                  Expand international and domestic information sharing efforts as well as multi-jurisdictional cooperation and communication.

 

6.                  Develop alternatives to current practices of recruiting and hiring information technology personnel in police agencies.

 

7.                  Engage in more cooperative ventures in identifying criminal trends and developing law enforcement strategies.                   

 

8.                  Integrate services and information sharing throughout the criminal justice system to ensure continuity (e.g. offender tracking, victim tracking).

 

9.                  Increase law enforcement training in civil unrest and peacekeeping practices.

 

10.              Establish, maintain, and enhance police relationships between officers and

students, teachers, and administrators in public and private schools.            

11.              Pursue wider implementation of prototype restorative justice programs backed by sound research protocols.                    

 

12.              Establish effective protocol for rapid identification of substances that have a psycho- tropic effect.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Group 4:          The Future of Policing Practices and Philosophies

 

Trends

 

 

1.                  Trend:              Police psychologists will be licensed by the states to insure the highest standard of excellence; all departments will use police psychologists for pre-employment screening.                       

 

Year:                           2005                        2010                        2015                        2020                       

 

Likelihood (%):            24                        28                        32                        34                       

Impact:                        1.7                        2.0                        1.8                        2.2                       

 

 

 

2.                  Trend:              Police will have highly trained background investigators to ensure that police applicants' backgrounds represent core values of pride, honesty, preservation of life, pursuit of excellence, compassion, loyalty, professionalism, trustworthiness and courage in addition to current requirements.